Industry Insight
Technology push for cheaper electricity at heart of talks
4 February 2010
Grid parity for the thin film industry could be a reality as soon as 2020 if the industry works unilaterally on a few areas. We highlight what some of the most influential companies and decision makers believe those areas to be.
By Elizabeth Block
Parity is in sight for the thin film and electrical power sectors around the world, according to Subhendu Guha, chairman of United Solar Ovonic, a subsidiary of Energy Conversion Devices, and whose company claims to be the world’s largest manufacturer of flexible solar cells.
Guha says that parity is in sight as early as 2020.
But like his fellow delegates at the recent Thin Film Today’s annual summit in San Francisco , government support in terms of market pull will be a major driver in the sector’s success.
"The industry also must be rewarded with feed-in tariffs, he says, as well as having barriers removed, such as barrier net metering and uniform code."
It was agreed by many in the audience that pushing technology that takes an active effort to make electricity more affordable is they key to the thin film industry's future success.
Bringing down costs
Christian Koitzsch, managing director of Bosch-owned Ersol Thin Film, believes the industry must “use every advantage to bring the cost of electricity down, below two euros system price, and compete with crystalline technology”.
“In order to compete, CIGS must achieve both high capacity and cost reduction.”
Discrete cell CIGS must beat crystalline at the cell level, he says.
Brian Murphy, president and CEO of PrimeStar Solar, applies lessons from the wind and semiconductor sectors to urge four strategies: industry consolidation, “relentless pursuit” of lower costs, standardisation and “cradle to cradle” environmental responsibility.
Can thin film win the battle against crystalline?
Paula Mints, principal analyst, Navigant Consulting, stresses the significance of a thin film manufacturer emerging as number one on the top ten list – First Solar.
This marked a first for the 35-year old terrestrial PV industry.
Incentives, she says, will remain important and made a point at the summit to speak of keeping up a “balancing act”: "The industry must not overbuild but must be ready for continued strong demand.”
She quotes a colleague: “Let’s think outside the rectangle."
Roadmaps
John Bartlett, Financial Analyst, Solar Energy Technologies Programme at the US Department of Energy, says that if the Solar Technology Roadmap Act, based on a similar roadmap for semiconductors, is enacted into law, it would allocate $2.5m over five years to solar R&D and demo projects.
Another act, introduced in both houses of Congress, would establish a Clean Energy Deployment Administration, including a Clean Energy Investment Fund within the Treasury of between $7.5bn and $10bn, depending on the final version.
Still talking of roadmaps, Benny Buller, Director of Device Improvement at First Solar, stresses that the industry must start looking from “MW to GW”.
To date, costs have come down from $2.94 per watt in 2004 to $0.85 in the third quarter of 2009. Buller is estimating a target of $0.52 for 2014. However, he warns that migration from existing subsidy markets to “transition markets” is “discontinuous”.
“Large scale solar requires modification of existing physical infrastructure, institutional frameworks and business models,” he says.
Among the panelists was Rajeeva Lahri, CEO of Signet Solar, which is developing single junction (SJ) thin film technology.
He sees increased efficiency as involving aSiH efficiency enhancements, nano materials, increased light trapping and advanced device architectures.
Cost cutting
Ted Sullivan, senior analyst at Lux Research. In a nutshell, in view of the prevailing intolerance of risk, advises anyone with money to “conserve cash”.
He also thinks developers should be prepared to “wait out the storm”.
How do we measure the cost of solar generation?
Sullivan says that “levelised costs of electricity” (LCOE) - measured in $/kWh – is rapidly replacing capex - $/Wp – as the “dominant means”.
He defines “grid parity” as the point at which an electricity customer is indifferent to buying electricity from the grid or from a solar system.
While this definition may be well accepted, Sullivan views grid parity as a “sliding scale”, depending on the country, the technology, and electricity rate regime.
“It will be a gradual process,” he says.
On turning CIGS into GW-based fabrication, Sohaila Setayesh, director of sales and contract management at Centrotherm PV, stresses uniformity – of composition, thermal process and Se supply.
Ascent Solar’s Joe Armstrong notes that many CIGS technologies are “promising” but few have reached production status.
With CIGS just emerging in terms of universal equipment design compared to crystalline cell fabrication, he cites the advantages of flexible CIGS in terms of installation.
Going forward, Armstrong says the challenge is with larger glass modules and roll to roll monolithic processing, where you don’t have the luxury of rejecting part of a module.
To hasten scale-up, he believes companies in general should focus on innovation to enhance and accelerate equipment design and back-end processing.
For further information on the Summit programme and topics discussed, please go to the following links:
http://www.thinfilmtoday.com/us/agenda.shtml
www.thinfilmtoday.com/us/audio.php
